Since I'm stealing stuff allover today, here's a link to Chris Cillizza courtesy of Balloon Juice.
In the House, the margin of Trump's losses in each state also matters a ton. In 2008, Obama won the popular vote over McCain by almost 10 million votes. If Trump lost by, say, 15 million votes (or even more), it would be hugely problematic for any congressional Republican in an even marginally competitive state or district.
Bye bye, Elise? We can only hope.