The agreement was reached the old-school way, by sitting
down at a table over many months and negotiating. Diplomats consulted experts.
Men and women in suits, not in uniform, did most of the talking. The process,
perhaps unfamiliar to a post-9/11 generation raised on the machismo of “you're either with us or against us,” is
called compromise. It’s an essential part of a skill that is increasingly
unfamiliar to Americans: diplomacy. The goal is not to defeat an enemy, find
quick fixes, solve every bilateral issue, or even gain the release of the four Americans held in Iran. The goal is to achieve a
mutually agreeable resolution to a specific problem. Such deft statecraft
demonstrates the sort of foreign policy dexterity American voters have seldom
seen exercised since Barack Obama was awarded the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize (Cuba being the sole exception).
And what does Congress want to throw away?
Iran, with the fourth-largest proven crude oil reserves and the
second-largest natural gas reserves on the planet, is ready to start selling on
world markets as soon as sanctions lift. Its young people
reportedly yearn for greater engagement with the West. The lifting of
sanctions will allow Iranian businesses access to global capital and outside
businesses access to starved Iranian commercial markets.
Since November 2014, the Chinese, for example, have already doubled their
investment in Iran. European companies, including Shell and Peugeot, are now
holding talks with Iranian officials. Apple is contacting Iranian distributors. Germany sent
a trade delegation to Tehran. Ads for European cars and luxury goods are
starting to reappear in the Iranian capital. Hundreds of billions of dollars
worth of foreign technology and expertise will need to be acquired if the
country is to update its frayed oil and natural gasinfrastructure. Many of its airliners are decades old and
need replacement. Airlines in Dubai are fast adding new Iran routes to meet
growing demand. The money will flow. After that, it will be very hard for the war
hawks in Washington, Tel Aviv, or Riyadh to put the toothpaste back in the
tube, which is why you hear such screaming and grinding of teeth now.
Have I mentioned yet that I don't care what the Saudis and Israelis think about it?
What fundamentally worries the Israelis and the Saudis
is that Iran will rejoin the community of nations as a diplomatic and trading
partner of the United States, Asia, and Europe. Embarking on a diplomatic offensive in the wake of its nuclear deal,
Iranian officials assured fellow Muslim countries in the region that they
hoped the accord would pave the way for greater cooperation. American policy in
the Persian Gulf, once reliably focused only on its own security and energy
needs, may (finally) start to line up with an increasingly multifaceted
Eurasian reality. A powerful Iran is indeed a threat to the status quo -- hence
the upset in Tel Aviv and Riyadh -- just not a military one. Real power in the
twenty-first century, short of total war, rests with money.
The bad news concerns the Israelis.
"There is strong evidence that Israeli forces committed
war crimes in their relentless and massive bombardment of residential areas of
Rafah in order to foil the capture of Lieutenant Hadar Goldin, displaying a
shocking disregard for civilian lives," said Philip Luther, director of
the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Amnesty International.
Not exactly claiming the moral high ground against the Iranians. Yes, I realize the Palestinians have been charged with committing war crimes as well.
No comments:
Post a Comment